The Mortgage Bankers Association lowered the projected mortgage originations in 2014 to $1.12 trillion—a $57 billion decrease. Despite high expectations for the economy, financial institutions believe originations will remain low due to the newly created Qualified Mortgage Rule and high interest rates.

Home purchase originations are anticipated to be at $677 billion this year, dropping from the previous projected rate of $711 billion. These numbers, however, would still be 3.8% higher than in 2013. Refinance originations are also expected to dwindle from $463 billion to $440 billion. That is 60% below last year’s refinance originations.

Long-term interest rates increased more than 100 basis points since May, which will likely negate any positive gains in refinancing.