MBS MID-DAY: One of the Craziest Days for Bond Markets, Ever

If you’re just tuning in, bond markets are having a career day with 10yr yields currently operating near 2.06 after trading in the 2.2’s yesterday and 2.4’s last week. Fannie 3.0s (those are important again now) are up a point and 3.5s are up 20 ticks. Best-ex rates are easily into the high 3’s. Wow…

Today isn’t going to break any records in terms of absolute movement. Clearly, we’ve seen bigger moves in the past, but we must also consider the context. For instance, bond markets were making bigger swings lower in yield in 2011 and 2008/2009, but the circumstances were quite different. In both of those cases, we had clearer motivations. In 1987, yields certainly dropped more in a 2 day period, but there again, that followed a massive sell-off and the drop was part of the reversal process.

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