MBS Day Ahead: Bonds at Risk of Confirming Death of Positive 2014 Trend

As Treasury yields and mortgage rates spiraled rapidly higher over the past two weeks, 2014’s steady trend toward lower rates quickly strayed into vulnerable territory. Specifically, 10yr yields lost more ground, more quickly than at any other time this year. It’s not just about the rapidity of the move, but also the distance from the central tendency. In other words, if we draw a line that leaves an equal number of hourly closing yields above and below, it would be the central line in the following chart. The circled area shows how Friday’s yields broke farther away from that center line than any other weakness this year.

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